Anchor resume from 1 to 8 of December 2017
Monday, 11 of December 2017
This week focus
After concluding a semifest week we see generalized recoveries in the main European markets, driven by two factors: first, the publication of economic indicators that surprised positively, among which we highlight the PMIs and the GDP of the Euro Zone. Second, by agreement reached between the United Kingdom and the European Union to advance in the next phase of Brexit.
Regarding the economic data, the GDP of the Euro Zone was published which was above the expected, (Current + 2.6% exp + 2.5% prev + 2.5%), the countries that showed the greatest advances They were Spain, Germany and France. On the other hand, the leading indicators maintained the expansionary rates, which leads us to anticipate continuity in the upward trend in economic activity. Despite this, there is no progress in retail sales (Current -1.1% exp -0.7% versus 0.8%) while the producer price index remains without major variations.
Although all the data shows solidity in the recovery of the European economy, no changes are expected in the ECB strategy in the next meeting to be held during the week, the reduction of debt purchases from 60,000 to 30,000 will be maintained million euros per month from January at least until September 2018. However, after the meeting we will know the new economic forecasts, which if revised upwards will indicate that the ECB anticipates the end of its asset purchase program.
The main European stock indices closed the week with generalized advances among which we highlight the + 2.34% that was recorded by the IBEX35 followed by the DAX + 2.27%, which, despite the political uncertainty maintained by Germany, advanced to the 13,153.7 points, while the EUROSTOXX50 + 1.81%.
On the other hand, in the United States we had flat closures in the main stock index. After overcoming the uncertainty of the approval of the tax reform and touching new historical highs, attention is now set at the next meeting of the FED that will take place on December 12 and 13, the last of the year, in which A rise in interest rates is highly probable and in which the quarterly forecasts of the institution will be announced.
Regarding macro information, we learned about the unemployment data that confirmed the strength of the labor market (Act 4.1%) and reaffirmed the expectations of a rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The market has already discounted a rise in the interest rate, however we will be very attentive to the inflation data which will be published prior to the announcements of the Fed, and according to the minutes of the last meeting it would be the determining factor in the next monetary policy decisions .
From Asia the year-on-year GDP in Japan was published, which advanced 2.5% annualized, surpassing forecasts, driven by private investment and by the increase in inventories; however, consumption remained flat, as did exports. On the other hand, the leading indicators of activity in China show a strong growth for November, the PMI Caixin of services (Actual 51.9 ant 51.2) and compound (Actual 51.6 ant 51) above the expectations of the market.
As for commodities, oil ended without significant variations at levels to 63.4 USD / Barrel, while gold fell -2.53%, with a generalized downward trend in the commodity market. For its part, the EUR / USD ended at levels of 1.7664, cutting the gains of the previous week where it reached levels above 1.188.