Anchor resume from 16 to 23 of February 2018
Friday, 23 of February 2018
This week focus
Luis de Guindos,
The publication of the minutes of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve set the pace of the market during the last week. The FED's lack of concern over the overheating of the economy led the market to recover its calm, while the VIX index continued to fall below the levels of 20 after the strong movements registered during the first days of February.
The monetary policy committee of the FED reveals a greater follow-up to core inflation, which continues below 2%, confirming that the latest inflation figure, against which the markets reacted negatively, would not be enough to anticipate additional increases to the three planned for 2018. In line with the initial estimates, the next rate hike by the FED would be in March.
For its part, the minutes of the European Central Bank did not register any news, considering that it is anticipated to change its position in relation to the finalization of the purchasing program. Regarding the appreciation of the Euro, they pointed out that the exchange rate will be a reason for special attention if these movements respond to policies of induced devaluation.
The publications of the monetary authorities generated a minor impact on the EUR / USD exchange rate, which in an intraday movement reached 1,236, however at the end of the week it was around 1.22.
In the macroeconomic area, we have mixed data in the Euro Zone, the annual variation of the CPI was 1.3% (previously 1.4%), the confidence indexes were below the estimates as well as the PMIs, however, they maintain in expansive areas; Particularly in Germany, the business confidence index fell to 115.4 in the month of February (after 117.6), pressured by lower optimism in the manufacturing sector, despite the 2017 annual GDP was in line with the estimates being placed 2.3% driven by exports and domestic demand.
On the other hand, the macro panorama in the United Kingdom weakens, the preliminary data of the annual GDP stood at 1.4% (previous and estimated 1.5%), while the unemployment rate for the month of December was 4.4% (previous and estimated 4.3%).
In Japan, the balance of trade data in January was favorable, the deficit was reduced to - JPY 943Billion (estimated JPY -1,002Billion) due to a 12% increase in exports compared to the previous month, this behavior led the Nikkei to 21,736 points, with a weekly variation of 1.3%. For its part, the Hang Seng index closed the flat week at 31,267 points in a week with few macro references by China due to the New Year festivities.
European markets ended the week with widespread promotions. The Ibex closed with a positive variation of + 1.5%, the CAC40 advanced + 1.7% with respect to the previous week and the Eurostoxx 50 did it in + 1.1%. For its part, the Dax closed flat around 12,451 points as the FTSE100.
In the United States, the main stock indexes registered slight movements in the order of -0.1% for the S & P500 and -0.2% for the Dow Jones. In the commodities market, the reference Brent crude registered a 3% weekly advance ending at around 66.4 USD / barrel while gold fell to 1,330 USD / Oz (-1.7% weekly).
At the political level we highlight the election of the Spanish Luis de Guindos to the vice-presidency of the ECB, after the withdrawal of the Irishman Philip Lane; it will take its position in June just when it is expected that decisions will be made regarding the continuation of asset purchases and the door will be opened to the termination of negative rates.
In Italy, one week before the elections; analysts foresee a parliament without a majority as the most likely outcome, widening political uncertainty about the region. For its part in Germany began the consultation on the coalition agreement within the social democratic party, the results will be known on March 4 two days after the close of the consultation.
So things, for the next few weeks the political agenda of the Euro Zone will be a focus of attention for investors.