Anchor resume from 2 to 9 of June 2017
Monday, 12 of June 2017
The month of June appeared to come with numerous references. During the last week we attended an early election in which Theresa May obtained less support than she intended to achieve, thus, the leader of the conservative party announced an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to be able to form government.
The line followed by Mario Draghi's remarks following the ECB meeting last Thursday, held a positive tone for the economic region. Although the reference rates remained at +0% and the deposit rate at -0,40%, growth forecasts were upgraded (up to +1,9% from the previous +1,8%). On the contrary, inflation forecasts fell to +1,7% and growth levels were confirmed despite leaving the door opened to the implementation of new stimuli in case of further deterioration in inflation rates.
During the day we expect to clear the latent uncertainty within the first round of the French elections with the pro-European leader Macron as a favorite.
Markets ended the week mixed; The IBEX-35 closed around the 10.978 with slight gains despite the doubts generated after the fall of the Banco Popular, while the EUROSTOXX-50 made it flat at 3.586 (-0,16%) and the DAX-30 did so quoting at 12.815 (-0,06%).
From the United States, we look forward to Janet Yellen's statements following the Fed’s meeting during Wednesday's session, in which we hope she will give feedback about the evolution and forecasts for the US economy that has suffered during the last month a slight slowdown. It should be noted, however, that for the next June’s meeting has been given a probability of 94,7% for a further rate hike.
In the latest data published, weekly claims for unemployment benefits became to be somewhat above expectations (at 245.000 compared to forecasts of 240.000). With respect to the service sector, it suffered a slight deterioration in the last month (non-manufacturing ISM around 56,9% compared to the 57 expected) and unit labor costs were below expectations (current 2,2% vs. +2,5% expected).
Weekly closures fell a -1,05% on the Nasdaq Composite up to 6.207, while the S&P-500 closed at 2.431 (-0,30%).
From the Asian continent, we highlight the improvement in the OECD growth estimates for Japan and China (now at +1,4% and +6,6% respectively in contrast to the +1,2% and +6,3% previously foreseen). As for the data published in Japan, they did not exactly follow the OECD forecasts; The latest GDP data fell to a +1% annualized compared to the +2,4% forecasted and to the previous data of +2,2%. On the contrary we must take into account that this indicator has a high volatility in the Japanese country, so we could consider it as a punctual data.
The weekly closures came also mixed with slight cuts on the Nikkei-225 which maintained the levels of 20.000, while the Hang Seng did so around the 26.030.
In terms of currency, the USD rebounded against the EUR to the 1,1192 EUR/USD according to the possibility that the ECB increases the stimulus in the economy, while the pound suffered slight falls due to the inability of Theresa May to obtain an absolute majority in the last elections, falling to 0,7878 EUR/GBP.
In terms of commodities, the price of crude fell again a -3,60% to the 48 USD/Brent, motivated by the fears of oversupply and the inability of the OECD to stabilize its price.