Anchor resume from 24 to 31 of March 2017
Monday, 03 of April 2017
We closed the month of March with the activation of Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. The UK started the process of leaving the European Union. The next reference date will be March of 2019, when negotiations to develop a special agreement between the two economic regions are expected to be finished. Even so, the markets were not affected since the exit had already been discounted before.
Greece was another focus of attention in Europe. The maturity of 3,8 billion euros of debt during the month of April increased the doubts about the capacity of the Hellenic country to face those payments. As far as we have known, a preliminary agreement would have been reached, including labor and pension reforms, but no date has yet been set for resuming talks at a higher level in Athens.
As for the European group, the consumer price index published last Friday made it less likely that the ECB will raise its rates in December after a +1,5% increase compared to + 1,8% forecasted. In addition, German business sentiment stood at highs of 2010 (current 112,3 vs. 111,1 expected).
The weekly closures in the Eurozone turned into green with widespread advances. The DAX-30 recorded a +2% rebounding up to the 12.312 and accumulating a +7,25% year to date, while the STOXX-50 went up a +1,65% to end around the 3.500 and a +1,50% the IBEX-35 (closing at 10.462).
In the new continent, the data published last Thursday showed a growth of the GDP in the US above expectations for the 4Q16 (+2,1% vs. + 2% expected), which strengthened the dollar. There were also improvements in the US trade balance in February, and rebounds of up to 125 in consumer confidence in March (vs. 114 expected). With all this, the Dollar rebounded a +1.37% against the Euro, now trading at around 1.0649 EUR/USD.
The selectives in the U.S., ended the month of March quoting at levels around the 5.911 in the technological Nasdaq Composite (+1,42%), while the S&P500 advanced a +0,80% around the 2.362.
From China, the leading indicators for the region were published. The result showed a clear expansion of activity in the non-manufacturing sector, after being above the levels of 50 (now in 55,1 compared to the previous figure of 54,2). Manufacturing indicators, however, remained at 51,6, slightly expansive levels. Markets, on the other hand, fell slightly, leading the selective Hang Seng to levels of 24.111 (-1%).
On the other hand, the closures in the Nippon selective, ended in red in spite of the advances of +2% in the levels of industrial production and of +0,8% in the service PPIs. The NIKKEI-225 is now trading at levels of 18.909 after falling a -1,80%.
As for the commodities market, the price of crude appears to have stabilized following the statements made by the Russian and Iranian energy ministers announcing their willingness to prolong production cuts beyond June and the drop in weekly crude oil inventories (of current 867 billion barrels compared to the expected 1,357 million barrels). The price rebounded a +4% during the week, consolidating levels of 52 USD/Brent.