Anchor resume from 25 of August to 1 of September 2017
Friday, 01 of September 2017
After the holiday period we started September with North Korea in the spotlight after the last ballistic missile tests, one of them flying over Japanese territory. The replies did not delay; the Japanese Prime Minister called it "an unprecedented and serious threat", while Donald Trump warned that "all options are on the table."
This situation had a negative impact on the markets, causing setbacks in the main asset stock exchanges. Nonetheless, the week has been calmed, mainly due to the good macroeconomic data published during the recent sessions.
At a global level, we must not forget the Jackson Hole's important annual meeting, which brought together the main "economic gurus" and the main leaders of central banks in order to analyze the economic models applied and to understand the reasons whether they did or not work or how they could be improved. Unfortunately, neither Janet Yellen (FED) nor Mario Draghi (ECB) made any reference to the direction of their respective monetary policies, so we will have to wait for the next meeting of the Central Banks (7 September ECB and 19- 20 FED).
Ready to start the last quarter of the year, the economies remained strong, showing signs of positive growth but without significant increases in price levels.
In Europe, the consumer price index stood at +1,5%, slightly above the expected +1,4%, as business and consumer confidence continued to improve. Doubtlessly, the most important figure was the latest update of manufacturing activity given that in August there has been a strong increase in the production of the Euro Zone, driven by stronger domestic demand, at highly expansive rates of 57,4.
For the main European indices, the evolution was somewhat more negative as the strength of the euro weighed on exporters. At technical level, the DAX would be trying to gain the significant resistance level of 12.300, while the Eurostoxx-50 could extend the falls to 3.300 in the short term should it fail to pull back.
From the United States we ended the week with a view to the publication of unemployment rate at 4,4%, non-farming payrolls for the month of August created 156k new jobs and the manufacturing PMI of the ISM reached 58,8 above expectations. Likewise on Monday, latest GDP data for the second quarter was released at annual rate of +3%, which beat expectations, in contrast to the expected +2,7%, which is the highest figure within the last two years.
As a result, the dollar managed to advance against the euro by recovering some of the lost ground. Some leaks from the ECB pointed to the concerns of its members about the strength of the euro, pushing down the common currency as well.
As for the Asian continent, China surprised the markets with a growth of activity higher than the estimated (manufacturing PMI at 51,7 compared to the 51,3 expected and 51,4 previous). In contrast, the Japanese economy showed somewhat weaker data with the -0,8% drop in industrial production and PMI rates at 52,2, lower than the previous figure and 52,8 expected.
At the commodity level, gold could continue to benefit from growing geopolitical tensions, while the price of crude could hold gains as the hurricane that is plaguing the country could continue to hamper refining production.