Anchor resume from 29 of June to 6 of July 2018
Friday, 06 of July 2018
This week focus
Central Bank of the Republic of China,
We ended a week in which commercial tension continued to be the main driver of the markets; This time it was not the United States that generated the news, but China, urging the European Union to form a common front to fight against protectionist measures, while the Chinese People's Bank announced its commitment to maintain its currency and not intervene to increase its competitiveness after the entry into force of previously announced tariffs.
Given this scenario, investors were optimistic and volatility decreased significantly from the previous week with a slight boost to equity, while the debt market remained stable and risk premiums eased the pressure of the previous weeks.
At the macroeconomic level we have mixed data that did not surprise the market; On the one hand, the stagnation of retail sales in the Euro Zone compared to the previous month confirms the weakness of the region's consumption, although the advanced indicators of activity were positive, the composite PMI stood at 54.9 points two tenths above expected driven by the services sector while manufacturing contracted.
In Germany, the June PMI exceeded expectations, the composite revision was 54.8 points, the services sector accelerated to its highest level in the last four months, counteracting the drop in industrial activity, where the slowdown in global trade has done own.
For its part, in the United States, manufacturing activity increased in June, the ISM reached 60.2 points from May 58.7, however the forecasts for the next revisions are not encouraging given that the protectionist measures would affect the supply chain weakening activity.
Thus, the European markets ended the week in positive territory, the IBEX35 led the gains with a positive variation of 2.3%, followed by the Eurostoxx50 that advanced to the 3,440 points gaining 1.33%, while the DAX recorded gains close to 1.29 %.
In the United States, the advances were minor with a decrease in the volume of negotiation due to the festivities. The Dow Jones advanced 0.3% to 24,356 points, while the S & P500 reached 2,760 points with a variation of 0.67%.
On the other hand, the Asian values registered as a result of the entry into force of tariffs by the United States, added to the unexpected fall of the Caixin PMI to levels of 51 points led the Hang Seng to go back -2.67% to 28,182 points , while the Nikkei reached 21,546 points, decreasing -3.4%.
In the commodity market there were generalized losses, except for gold that advanced 0.41% quoting around 1.247usd / Ounce, while the Brent reference oil registered a sharp drop of -2.28% at levels of 77.39 USD / Barrel.
For next week, the main driver of the market will be the publication of the US employment data, which will be released at the end of the day, it is expected that the unemployment rate stood at 3.8%, despite a surprise in the labor market would change the perspectives of rates by the FED