Anchor Resume from 3 to 10 of March 2017
Monday, 13 of March 2017
Throughout last week we had important references that determined the evolution of the financial markets.
In the Euro Zone, following the ECB meeting, they decided to maintain the current ultra-lax policy without changes in the levels of purchases of fixed-income assets. As a novelty, the deflationary risk in the Eurozone was definitively ruled out, and it was assured that stimulus will begin to be withdrawn as prices continue to rise and economic indicators support the measures. Thus, in his speech, Draghi maintained the confidence in the solidity of the Euro, and we hope that within the next apparitions his speech to be modified as the negotiations on Brexit, the European elections and the Greek situation arrive to their end.
As for the evolution of the Hellenic country, the latest news pointed out that the opposition of Tsipras will not support the announced fiscal measures, which could increase the tension in the negotiations to receive the last tranche of aid (we recall that this July 7.200 Million euros of debt must be repaid). While in the UK, a second independentist referendum could take place in Scotland.
As regards the macroeconomics, the view was somewhat more favorable, the Sentix investor confidence improved considerably (20,7 current vs. 18,5 expected) and German industrial production rebounded by +2,8% from the +2,5% predicted.
Financial markets closed with a mixed balance for the week. The IBEX-35 benefited from the financial sector managed to recover the levels of the 10.000 registering a +2,12%, while the STOXX-50 closed flat in the 3.416 (+0,38%) and the DAX-30 lost the levels of the 12.000 (-0,53%). Nevertheless, the Euro rebounded with respect to its main pairs boosted by the declarations of Draghi and the expectation that the tapering begins soon. The EUR/USD ended the week with gains of +0,46% at 1,0669 EUR/USD, while gains against the pound were higher (now at 0,8775 EUR/GBP after rebounding a +1,56%).
From the United States, the week has been marked by the data published last Friday of the US non-agricultural payrolls. The data showed the biggest increase in the latest 10 years, with 235.000 weekly requests compared to the expected 200.000, which led to the definitive discount of a new rate increase at the next FED’s meeting on Tuesday 14th. With this, the unemployment rate fell to +4,7% supported by an increase in salary levels of +2,8% per year.
Financial markets closed with slight cuts consolidating profits. The levels remained at the 2.372 in the S&P500 (-0,44%) and in the 5.861 the technological Nasdaq Composite.
In the Asian continent we give special importance to the growth of the tensions between the different blocks after the offensive of North Korea. The focus was set on launching missiles in the Sea of Japan, as this could start an arming race and affect the Asian markets in a negative way. We will follow very closely the evolution of events and statements made by Kuroda following the BOJ meeting that will take place next Thursday, on March 16th.
The Nikkei225 benefited from the weakness of the Yen, closing at 19.600 (+0,70%), while the Chinese selective Hang Seng closed flat at 23.568 (+0,07%).
Regarding commodities, we highlight the new falls in the price of the crude oil after Repsol announced that it would have found the deposit with the largest oil reserves of the last 30 years in North American territory with potential of 1,2 billion barrels. That, along with rumors that OPEC might not make further cuts in production rates, led oil to close with a -8% drop at 51.37 USD/Brent.