Anchor Resume from 30 of January to 3 of February 2017
Monday, 06 of February 2017
We opened the month of February with the meetings of the main Central Banks. Likewise, we have been able to count with the publication of the new business results and important macroeconomic data.
The weekly balance for the Eurozone has been especially positive. Increasing numbers of the ECB members are advocating a progressive reduction in the QE levels in face of the strengthen shown in the leading indicators of economic activity, which maintained their expansion rates, and the quarterly GDP growth presented an increase of +0,5% Current vs. expectations of +0,4%. Similarly, in the latest update of consumer prices new gains have been recorded (+1,8% current vs. +1,6% expected). Given this, bond yields rallied ahead of a tightening of the ECB policy.
We keep on the negative side the increasingly close elections in France before the position of right-wing candidate Le Pen after announcing that her main objective will be to leave the euro. With regards to the United Kingdom, it will be on Wednesday, 8th, when the final vote will take place to make Brexit effective and the proposal will be passed to the House of Lords, which are expected to approve the decision taken by the House of Commons . As for the Bank of England, they kept rates unchanged and raised growth forecasts for 2017 up to a +2%, surpassing previous estimates of +1,4%.
In the equity markets, it should be noted that the IBEX-35 lost its support level of 9.500, closing on Friday at levels of 9.462 (-0,44%). As for the business reports season in Spain, Banco Popular shares were heavily damaged following record losses (of 3,845 million) in the attempt to "clean up" their balance sheet. Among the rest of the selectives, the biggest falls were recorded in the DAX-30 (now around 11.651 after falling back -1,38%).
From the US we attended to the last Open Market Committee from the Fed. As expected, the Federal Reserve was cautious in continuing to standardize rates (with no changes maintaining the range of the reference rates at +0,5 – 0,75%) pending further details of the fiscal policies that ultimately has implemented the US president. However, Janet Yellen noted the strengthening of the labor market and maintained growth expectations. As for the presidency of Donald Trump, it appeared that he will continue to bring controversy in the political arena after the established anti-immigration policy, threats to Iran with new sanctions after conducting a ballistic missile test, and criticism of the ECB for allegedly devaluing the Euro to boost the competitiveness of the economy as a whole.
As for the results session, it maintained the positive tone, with Apple at the head, marking record of sales and amply surpassing the forecasts of BPAs (current 3,36 vs 2,01 predicted). Weekly closures on Wall Street were flat with the S&P500 in the 2.294 and the technological Nasdaq Composite around 5.666.
In Asia, after the BOJ’s meeting, Kuroda decided not to introduce changes leaving the rates at -0,1% again defending the negative rates to reach the inflation targets. Regarding China, despite the celebration of the new year, we were able to count on important macro data, among which we highlight the poor data of the last manufacturing PMI CAIXIN which fell to levels 51 of the 51,8 expected and The former 51,9.
Likewise, we noted the falls that the Japanese Nikkei225 selective of the -2,80% finished finishing in the 19.918. In contrast, the Yen gained a +1,3% against the EUR acting again as a refuge asset (now at 121,49 EUR/JPY). For the rest of the pairs, the pound again gave ground to the EUR anticipating the exit of the country of the EU, which led the pair to close to the 0,8632 EUR/GBP.
As for commodities, gold again acted as a safe asset, recording a +2,40% (now at US 1.219 USD/Onz.). Also, the Barrel of Brent increased by + 2,32% thanks to the cut in production levels ending at levels of 56,81 USD/Brent.