Macron wins, Europa breathes
Tuesday, 09 of May 2017
This week focus
The European and global focus with the unexpected backing of former US President Barack Obama was set in the French presidential elections. Finally, in the face of the temporary fear of an extreme right-wing victory, the French voted for moderation and for a center-right President of the Republic and renewing airs.
We can say that the easiest has already happened, since the difficult thing now begins for the new tenant of the Elysee. I am referring not only to the eternal European balance, but to the internal challenges and the complicated economic situation in France, which is not foreign to that of the other partners in the Euro zone.
For now Macron is accompanied by an improvement in business economic sentiment. The PMI manufacturing index is at recent highs, in a clear expansion zone, at levels of 55.1 when it was 48 a year ago, indicating a recession.
The public deficit, on the other hand, exceeds the level marked by the Treaty of Maastricht, at -3.4% and its balance of payments on current account registers a deficit of -1.1%. The public debt amounts to 96% of GDP and the unemployment rate reaches 10.1% Economic growth, below the European average, at 1.5% expected for 2017.
Demography, unlike Spain, allows the population to increase continuously, and does not exhaust the essence of the welfare state. Although the migratory flow that contributes to this support may imply some social problem in case of employment crisis or terrorist attacks, further pushing the electorate towards the National Front of Marine Le Pen.
With this scenario, Macron has no easy task to create jobs, reduce deficits without raising taxes or reduce public employment (more than 20% of the active population are employees for just over 10% in Germany according to the OECD) and sustain the premium Without assistance from the ECB.
He will be allied with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who, relieved to not have to deal with a Frexit added to the Brexit complex, hopes that the European board will be set up to undertake the reinvention of the Euro. His white book hopes that the rulers of the States will define themselves: more Europe, several speeds, or the English dismemberment. Macron, for now, is by the first option but Le Pen stalks in case the new president fails to channel France.