Market's evolution 21 of March to 25 of March 2016
Tuesday, 29 of March 2016
Although rare, we expected that the focus was going to be set on the macro references published during the week. Unfortunately, because of the attacks that took place in Brussels last Monday, data about economic sentiment and macro trends passed into the background.
As far as the macroeconomic situation in the European Union is concerned, during the last days it was announced the severe budget hazard that could mean that countries like UK, France, Spain and Greece exceed the limits of + 3% deficit regarding the GDP. Also, Coeure from the ECB urged the governments from the EU to bring out a new process of economic convergence through economic and fiscal policies in order to get better results with the policies made by the ECB and to achieve greater economic stability in the region.
In the United States we had relevant references like the GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2015, which surprised on the upside with a rise of +1,4% expected and the previous data published of +1%. We also continued assisting to statements made by Fed members who continued being committed to improvements in the US economy thanks to the recovery in oil prices. According to Evans (Member of the Federal Reserve), growth could be of + 2-2,5% in 2016.
The Japanese government made public the last written newsletter, where was shown the vision of the recovery of the Japanese economy at a moderate pace while acknowledging further weakness seen it. Private consumption had been moderate while business investment accelerated. Later in the hearing, in was shown the willingness to expand monetary stimulus program if risks materialized.
Equity markets ended the week with slight cuts consolidating progress without large trading volume due to the celebration of Easter. In Europe, closures were negative, starring falls up to -2,90% in the selective IBEX 35 now around the 8.789, while the EUROSTOXX50 did with -2,30% below levels of 3.000. On Wall Street, closures were flat with a fall of -0,50% in the Nasdaq Composite (now around the 4.773) and -0,70% in the S&P500. In contrast, the rise of + 1,70% from the Nikkei225.
As far as commodities are concerned, the price of Brent was very volatile presenting fluctuations as they got to know news about the next meeting in April OPEC and non-OPEC members. Also, sharp declines were recorded into its price after the US crude inventories should be updated after being well above the expected value (9.357 million barrels vs. the expected 3.090M).
In the currency market, mixed results, while the euro continued to advance against the pound (now the pair around the 0,79 EUR / GBP), the dollar rose nearly 1% over its main pair closing at levels of 1,116 EUR / USD.