Market's evolution 26 of October to 30 of October 2015
Monday, 02 of November 2015
Intense week in terms of macroeconomic data releases and the statements of the leaders of US, Japan and China’s Central Banks. In addition, they continued revealing quarterly results which were particularly negative for the banking sector.
As we realized last week, the outlook for inflation in the euro zone is negative for the short term. This has been shown again over recent sessions following the publication of the main price indices. In Germany, the Bundesbank's statements followed the same line after stating that there was a slowdown in economic growth although this remains robust.
Regarding the US economy, we assisted to listen the statements of Janet Yellen from the Fed after the Federal Open Market Committee held between Tuesday and Wednesday. In them, the good performance of the economy was stressed and left opened the possibility of a rate hike in December despite the bad macro data published during the week. Conversely, Barclays agreed with Goldman Sachs to reduce GDP estimates for the Q3 to +1% from +1,2% previously determined.
In Asia, we had important references from China after the Communist Party meeting where the country's growth forecasts for the next five years were performed by setting the target at +6,53% (less than the number of years). We also knew new measures among which include the announcement of the end of the one-child policy. In Japan, by contrast, following the meeting of the Central Bank, were not carried out modifications. Negative data is left unchanged interest rates and no new stimulus measures despite recent falls were approved in sales and macro recently published.
The last sessions in equity markets were strong given the large number of references that were announced. Earnings season beginning in Europe was especially negative for the banking sector after the bad data published and the EU decision on the ground clauses mortgages. In result, the markets closed mixed with cuts over -1,11% in the Spanish IBEX 35 selective and slight gains in the German DAX + 0,50% which closed at 10.850.
In the US by contrast, were again recorded slight gains for the main selectives after the message from the Fed launched after the Federal Open Market Committee and good corporate earnings closed with rises of up to + 0.50% for the Nasdaq100.
In the currency market we include a weaker euro relative to the pound, the yen, and the dollar after the expectations of further expansionary measures as well as recent disappointing economic data. The EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1,10 EUR/USD.
As for commodities, we attended rallies in oil prices following the publication of the drop in US stocks closing at 49,56 USD/Brent and scoring rallies + 3,20%.