Profitability Reports of our clients from April 2016
Friday, 13 of May 2016
- Mixed developments in European selective since the date of the last committee; despite the rebound of +1.16 in the IBEX 35, he continued at below 9000 levels following the bearish channel as well as the DAX which a + 0.77% scored and remained around the 9,869. Closures in the US continued to show widespread falls; -3.63% In the Nasdaq Composite (4,736).
- Regarding Equity sector, the sectors that benefited most were: Gold & Precious Metals (+ 11%), Energy (+ 6.49%) and Materials (+ 4.65%) without significant drops have occurred. As for the monthly selection, certain sectoral increases in exposure were Biotechnology and Healthcare with yields of about -0.90% and + 1.14% respectively.
- Volatility levels (although they remained lower) experienced an upturn recently by the situation of general weakness of the macroeconomic outlook for the UK risk and exit from the EU, the elections in the US and uncertainty about developments the Chinese economy.
- Modest gains of EUR against the USD reaching levels of 1.14 EUR / USD. The situation was, however, completely opposite in the EUR / GBP after a bounce pound + 1.24% and the yen after rebounding anotase + 4% over the EUR closing at levels of 0,79 EUR / GBP and 122.15 EUR JPY.
- The government Fixed income assets after suffering increases in risk premiums, which were up bond yields. By contrast, there were increases in the prices of fixed income issues government investment grade after the ECB announced new corporate bond repurchases.
- Strong rebound of a barrel of Brent (+ 17%) despite increases were recorded in the levels of production and not reached an agreement in Doha.
GLOBAL MACRO PANORAMA
EUROZONE: From the OECD pointed to the slowdown in developed economies, especially the US, UK and Germany. The IMF cut back global growth forecast to + 3.2%.
- The focus was placed again in Greece since the country today has not increased revenue as agreed and have made fiscal adjustments required by the European Commission. In addition, the Eurogroup recognized that Greek debt was unpayable so they offer ways for reset (regardless of the possibility of take away).
- After the ECB meeting were unchanged reference rates and deposit (0% and -0.40% respectively), leaving the door open to further easing measures if necessary. However, it was decided to expand the universe of investment in corporate bonds of high credit quality.
- The feeling was pushed down after the publication of some bad business results.
USA: The statements of the leaders of the nation were again multifarious, Donald Trump (presidential candidate) said the country was facing a massive recession and criticized the measures taken by the Fed, Janet Yellen while the supported highlighting the improvement in the labor market.
- They did not carry out changes in the monetary policy of the Fed, stressing moderation in household spending, falling exports and low price levels.
- Growth forecasts were slashed in 2016 to + 2.4% from the previous figure of 2.6%.
UK: BOE unchanged interest rates at + 0.5% and took the opportunity to warn of the adverse effects that could have on the economy Brexit.
JAPAN: despite concerns Kuroda to achieve the inflation target of + 2%, not moved tab. However, it announced that it would present a supplementary budget in mid-May with more expansionary measures.
- Data released continued to show weakness in growth and business sentiment.
CHINA: analysts remained concerned over the Asian giant although Fitch rule out the possibility of a forced landing due to the high reactivity and tools you have. The latest data published has been the World Bank, which established an expected growth of 6.7% in 2016 for the region.
- Trade levels improved more than with a rise of 11.5% in exports and a moderation of declines in imports of -7.5% (from the previous figure of -13.8%), although some sources They point to include outflows amid fears of a new devaluation of the yuan.
- However data concerning debt levels, would be of concern since the financial sector debt is around 260% of GDP.