Profitability Reports of our clients from March 2016
Friday, 08 of April 2016
The returns obtained by our customers in March.
MARCH IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
- We identified cuts in the European equity markets again although they were not as severe as in February. This factor led the indices to support levels. The biggest falls were recorded in the French CAC40 selective (-3%), followed by the EUROSTOXX50 and the IBEX 35 (-2.77% and -2.38% respectively).
- The trend was totally contrary in the US, where we saw rallies of +4% in the Nasdaq Composite, closing around the 4.914 and of +3.60% in the S & P500 recovering the levels of 2.000. However in Asia, the closures were mixed and falls were up to -5% in the NIKKEI225 following the worrying developments in the economy, while rallies in the Hang Seng +1,60%.
- The sectoral evolution was marked by the rise of + 4% in Utilities (defined in the last month strategy) and falls of -2% in Financials and Technology sectors.
- Levels of moderated volatility (VIX: 13) despite the terrorist attacks that took place in Belgium and the meetings of Central Banks.
- The progress of the EUR against the USD (+3,50%) were repeated after Yellen's statements should do rotate downward currency and respect pound (+ 3,57%) due to the concern that the United UK leave the EU.
- Yields on fixed income assets away from rebounding, continued downward after starring cuts in risk premiums. German Bund now offering an IRR of 0,145.
- The barrel of Brent closed the month of March without major changes again below 40 USD/Brent after Iran announced that it would not be part of the resulting agreement after the meeting of OPEC producers and non-OPEC.
GLOBAL MACRO PANORAMA
EUROZONE: the current situation in the Eurozone growth is worrying because of the unemployment levels, the economic leverage, the negative interest rates, the risk Brexit, immigration crisis, ...
- At its meeting, the ECB surprised the market with a cut in the refinancing rate to +0% from +0,05%, lowered the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0,40% and expanded purchasing He is stating that the QE assets would remain until we see a sustained recovery in price levels.
- Inflation expectations stood at +0,1% for 2016 and estimated the growth around 1,4%.
- Leading indicators of activity were located near contractionary levels (50,7 in Germany). This growth still can not find support in upturns price levels despite upturns were recorded in core inflation which continues below January levels.
USA: the duel between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continued present, but were Yellen's statements that focused all the attention.
- No changes in monetary policy, due to the risks mentioned from the global economy.
- The construction sector and consumer spending levels continued supporting the US economy, while slowing in the manufacturing sector could weigh on growth.
UK: Pending from the evolution of risk of departure of the UK from the European Union because of the danger that it might pose to the world economy, and especially for European.
- JPM delayed until 1T17 expectations of rate hikes in the UK.
- Further falls were recorded in industrial production levels and prospects would not be positive before the publication of the manufacturing PMI 50,8 In respect levels of 52,2 expected and the previous 52,9 previous. It was also modified the GDP forecasts downward for the 1T16 up to +0.3% from the +0.4% previously.
JAPAN: The Japanese prime minister is considering new stimulus measures among which a rate cut is expected. It was recognized that growth despite being moderate, was weak after further falls in retail sales and exports.
CHINA: China continues carrying out reforms and opening to the outside is based on promoting a change of growth model. Even so, the situation is worrying given the negative Outlook by Moody's to the high level of debt and the deterioration of the trade balance.