Profitability Reports of our clients from March 2017
Monday, 10 of April 2017
World Macro Panorama,
GLOBAL MACRO PANORAMA
EUROZONE: following the lastest meeting of the ECB the ultralax monetary policy was maintained. Nevertheless, Draghi reaffirmed the need to maintain the support to the economy, reason why the purchases could be extended beyond 2017.
The European Commission required new reforms to Greece above pension’s fees and the labor market in exchange for making the rescue aid effective. The Greek government failed to reach an agreement with its creditors and the population resumed street protests over social cuts.
The Dutch elections were won with the victory of the Popular Party candidate for Freedom and Democracy against the right-wing party. This helped ease fears in the political area.
From France, Le Pen received greater support in the latest surveys for in the second round of the French elections (+39% of the votes vs. the +61% of his opponent Macron).
U.S.: reference rates (now set between the +0,75%/+1%) increased by 25 basis points at the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. Growth forecasts remained at +2,1% unchanged for 2017 and it was decided not to reduce the size of the FED's short-term balance sheet.
Donald Trump did not get the support needed to implement the health reform. Now the fears focus on its capacity to implement the reforms announced in his electoral program.
The non-agricultural payroll data showed a strong increase (235.000 vs 200.000 esp) and the salary level growth increased a +2.8% this year. In this line, the minutes published by the Fed reflected the will to gradually reduce liquidity aid to the markets at the end of the year
U.K.: The chambers of parliament gave Theresa May green light to activate the Brexit process. The date set for reaching an agreement will be next March from the 2019.
Growth rates were below expectations (+1,9% compared to the estimated +2%), although the leading PMI manufacturing indicator maintained the expansion rates of 54,2 and in the services sector were higher than Expected (55 vs. 53,5 predicted).
British inflation rates exceeded the target of +2%. Nevertheless, the BOE members indicated that it was a punctual data.
JAPAN: Governor Kuroda maintained monetary easing by discarding rate hikes.
The evolution of the region was generally positive, with expansive activity rates and record increases in retail sales and machinery orders (+0,5% and +9,1% respectively vs. the respective previous data of -1, 6% and +3,5%).
CHINA: The OECD cut growth estimates for the Asian giant to +6,3% from +6,5% previously forecast. Likewise, PMI Caixin's latest data slowed to rates of 52,2 compared to the previous figure of 52,6, while service PMI continued to improve at rates of 55,1 (compared to the forecasted 54,2).
Strong progress was made in the Eurozone and mixed closures in the US. The IBEX-35 rebounded a +6,15% accumulating +11,23% in what we have of the year quoting around 10.400. Somewhat more moderate advances were made in the STOXX-50 (+2%) and the DAX-30 (+1,60%), now in levels of 3.472 and 12.217 respectively.
From the US, the Dow Jones (20.648) and the S&P500 (2.352) fell 1.70% in the absence of catalysts that help maintain peak levels.
On the Asian continent, there was progress of +3,6% in Hang Seng (now around the 24.400). On the contrary, the Nikkei-225 fell a -3,12% to 18.861, maintaining the levels identified as support (18.650) in a context in which political turmoil and the strength of the Yen pushed down.
Volatility levels rose a +17,61% to 12,89, although these remain well below the historical average.
The largest sectoral falls were in the Technological sector (-3,62%) and Biotechnology (-3%), while Utilities were the most benefited (+2,16%).
In the commodities market, crude was not able to maintain the levels of 55 USD/Brent, downward recalls led to a fall of -2,60% in the barrel of Brent.