This Week's Focus: Greece, time to show the cards on the table
Tuesday, 07 of July 2015
This week focus
After months of negotiations on several fronts, it defaults to the IMF marked a turning point in the evolution of the Greek epic. The surprise referendum called by the Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, caused shock among European partners and the victory of NO to the proposed Eurogroup bewilderment.
However, despite the enthusiasm of the Greek people and the staging of unity around their government, we must remember that Greece is the debtor and not the creditor. And it is out of time, since it goes against the accelerated schedule of debt maturities and interest payments facing.
Under these conditions, there is little leeway to come up with realistic and durable solutions, and creditors are not usually intimidated them with threats and blackmail when you know you have a financial system on the verge of bankruptcy and needs immediate help; unless it has already hatched a plan B: reissue its own currency and foreign debt impagar.
It is also possible that creditors have taken the decision not to put more money to recover what they are owed, giving all lost. In this case, the cost to European countries is high (it reminded Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president of the government of his country on Saturday), but can be overcome.
In another order, not economic and financial, but the geopolitical level, is the influence on a country, Greece, is strategically located in the eastern Mediterranean, can stop influenced by the western world (US and its European allies) at a critical time of recovery of power by Russia and the Islamist breakthrough in Middle East and North Africa. Was a Russian base in the Adriatic imagine?
Finally, some recent history. The calamity that threatens the Greek population is not just the fault of the troika, but of Greek society itself. For decades, Greece has lived grant other European countries unable to raise their own state and to improve the way funding from other partners. An example that Greece's fiscal revenue to GDP in 2012 were just over 36% of GDP (in 2011 less than 35%) when the EU average was 40.5%.
The output of this new crisis within the EU will not be easy, since it is a financial issue that will solve politicians. We have seen that only the IMF has dared to mention the unsustainability of the Greek debt, so we must play sooner or later removed from main both wary Germans for their effect on other European partners and see if tools contention that the EU has adopted are sufficient for the test to good insurance markets undergo any progress or failure in the negotiations until July 20, the key date for Greece to overcome the default.