Furthermore, although the positive signal that would send the market is the sustained recovery of the US economy, most likely in the short term, equities would suffer a fall due to lower valuation by increasing the discount rate of benefits future in the "fair-value". Our estimate is that the S & P 500 index pass the 2202 current theoretical value points to the range of 1760 to 1956 depending on the setting in the expected growth rate of corporate profits.
What if there are no changes yet?
On the contrary, if not now nor bias types are altered, arguing factors that can destabilize economic growth, a slowdown in China's economy, a new episode of Greek tragedy or a "currency war" between countries Emerging Asia, for example, markets may react negatively.
The feeling that quantitative easing has done little except to increase the debt of some countries, and the realization of economic growth was below potential (what has been called "the new normal"), may involve lower growth expectations and corporate profits, and favor a decline in equities.
In this environment of lower growth, debt sustainability of some countries and companies could be compromised, which could also generate negative cash flows from fixed income affecting prices and rising, effectively, interest rates.
In any event, the 17th will leave doubts.