Anchor resume from 1 to 8 of June 2018
Friday, 08 of June 2018
This week focus
The stabilization of monetary policy in the Euro Zone has once again captured the attention of investors. The statements by ECB members, prior to the meeting where the end of the asset purchase program will be discussed, generated upward movements in European public debt, while in the United States, a new rate movement is expected next week by the FED.
Peter Praet, chief economist of the ECB, announced that the committee is increasingly confident that inflation is moving towards the goal, so that next week's meeting will discuss the deadlines for the withdrawal of purchases, declarations to the that Jeins Weidman, president of the Bundesbank; In this sense, despite the political tensions in Italy, the ECB would maintain its road map based on the evolution of the indicators. The markets expect a change of tone in the official speech next week that would be the prelude to the announcement of the end date of the program.
In this scenario, the EUR / USD reached levels of 1.1797 with an appreciation of 1.17%, while the 10-year German bond approached levels of 0.5%; while risk premia fell back across Europe, with the exception of Italy, whose spread widened by 16.1bps. The American debt ended the week with a bullish movement in rate, the reference to 10 years closed around 2,933%.
For its part, in the equity market, the positioning of investors seems to be on the side of prudence, the VIX volatility index so far does not seem to reflect the extension of the events of next week and is at levels of 12.3 before the meeting of the G7 countries and the summit between the United States and North Korea.
As for the meeting of the G7, it is expected that the central issue will be trade relations and that once again the US administration will seek to pressure to reduce its deficit, in addition they will return to issues such as the nuclear agreement and climate change. For its part, the meeting with the North Korean leader scheduled for next week, will have an unpredictable agenda whose purpose will be to normalize relations between the two countries.
In this sense, the stock indices ended the week in mixed terrain. The Ibex35 closed with a slight upward movement of 0.95%, cutting profits in the last session. The Dax fell -0.69% around the 12,612 points, punished by the data of industrial production that disappointed the market with a contraction of 1% in the month of April. While the Eurostoxx50 ended around the 3,428 points with a decline of -0.7%.
Wall Street continues its upward path, the Dow Jones with a close around 25,241 points + 2.45%, the S & P500 at levels of 2,770 points + 1.3% and the Nasdaq, after reaching three days of maximums, ended at levels of 7,635 points .
Asian markets added to optimism despite the divergence of macroeconomic data published throughout the week. On the positive side, China's exports increased 12.6% in May, together the trade balance was 24.9 billion dollars (Estimated 28.3 thousand million). For its part, in Japan the economy contracted -0.6% annualized in the first quarter, without changes from the preliminary estimate, disappointing the consensus that did not expect a fall of such magnitude.
The Hang Seng advanced 3.34% to 31,512 points while the Nikkei225 had a weekly variation of 2.36% at levels of 22,694 points.
Raw materials showed slight upward movements. Benchmark Brent oil ended at 77.32USD / Barrel with a weekly variation of 0.69%, while gold advanced 0.31% at levels of 1,296USD / Ounce.
For next week the main catalysts of the market will be the decision of interest rates of the FED, which will surely opt for an increase; the result of the ECB meeting, the announcements after the G7 summit and the rapprochements between the United States and North Korea.