Anchor resume from 14 to 21 of April 2017

Anchor resume from 14 to 21 of April 2017


Once cleared the uncertainty generated by the first round of the French elections with the victory of Macron, we focus on the second round that will take place next May 7. As pointed out by the latest polls, the centralist candidate stood with 23.9% of the votes at the top, ranking for the second round of the French elections, followed by anti-European candidate Marine Le Pen with a 21.5% of the votes.

The week in the markets was somewhat convulsive and settled with the main selective European mixed. In order to get a generalized overview of the evolution after the last semifesive days, for the weekly summary we have considered that it might be helpful to extend the evolution of the markets from Thursday 13th until the close of Friday 18th. The latter IBEX-35 advanced without strength up to 10.377 (+0,49%), while the DAX-30 fell down by -0,50% to the 12.048, and the STOXX-50 closed the day of Friday flat in levels in Around 3.440 (-0.23%).

As for the currency, the Euro closed with slight rebounds against the Dollar of +1,07% quoting around the 1,0726 EUR/USD, gains that remained after the results of the French presidential results. As for the set of published macroeconomic data, they supported the strength of the economy, with the levels of activity advancing and maintaining the maximum levels (56,7 actual vs. 56,3 expected in the composite data), and light price levels in the month of March rebounds as expected at +0,8%.

Already on the doorstep of the equator of the week, we were surprised by the statements made by Theresa May (UK’s Prime Minister) announcing early elections for next June 8th, willing to gain more support in the Brexit negotiations. The direct effect this had on the markets was positive for the pound which is trading at levels of 0,8373 EUR/GBP (-1,32%), while for the main English selective had a totally opposite effect ending the week with falls of -2,91%. The forecasts from the Bank of England are positive for inflation levels, so there is scope for modestly increasing rates according to the latest statements made by BOE members.

From the United States, we knew the vision published by the FED in the latest update of the Beige Book. The evolution of the economy was updated from modest to moderate for March, establishing as factors of uncertainty the capacity of the president of Donald Trump to materialize the fiscal measures announced in its program as one of the major obstacles for the American activity.

In the latest data presented, there were decreases in published manufacturing activity levels (52,8 actual vs. 53,5 expected), factor that penalized the main selectives closing the week with falls. The levels in the selectives carried out advances in a week that has been dominated by the good published business data. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains after posting a +1,82% (up to 5.910), while the advances that the S&P500 made were somewhat more moderate at around 2.348 (+0,85%).

From the Asian continent the evolution was mixed, with advances of +1% in the NIKKEI-225 after finishing at 18.620. The Hang Seng did so going back to the 24.042 (-0,91%).

During the following week we will follow the declarations of the BOJ before the rumors that aims at the reduction of the forecasts of inflation of the 1.5%.

In the commodities market, the declines were widespread, led by Brent Barrel, whose prices fell by -7% to levels of 51.96 USD/Brent.

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