Anchor resume from 23 of February to 2 of March 2018
Friday, 02 of March 2018
This week focus
During the last week the European investors remained prudent waiting for the general elections in Italy amid a strong political division; and to the votes within the Social Democratic Party in Germany which would approve the coalition agreement with the government of Angela Merkel.
For its part in the United States, the attention of the markets focused on the new protectionist measures of Donald Trump and on the statements of Jerome Powell before the congress. On the one hand, Trump announced an increase in steel import tariffs to 25% and 10% for aluminum, in order to increase the use of industrial capacity. This measure provoked nervousness in the investors before the possible answers of the main economic blocks.
On the other hand, the statements of the president of the FED Jerome Powell in his appearance before the congress were taken by the markets as hawkish, in that he was optimistic about the recovery of the economy and ratified the importance of finding a balance between inflation and growth to avoid overheating. The market anticipates three increases in interest rates during the year, however after Powell's statements, the probability of an additional increase increased.
Amid the announcements by the United States and the political uncertainty in the Euro Zone, few markets have managed to recover from the strong corrections at the beginning of February and ended the week in negative territory. The Eurostoxx50 closed around 3,341 points with a weekly retracement of around 2.9%, the Ibex35 did so at levels of 9,570 (-2.5%), while the DAX was left -4.5% at levels of 11,922 points.
The American markets continued to cut profits and ended the week to the downside. The S & P500 closed at around 2,660 points (-2.5%), while the Dow Jones did at levels of 24,608 (-2.77%) and the Nasdaq at 7,180 (-2.14%).
In Asia, the Nikkei225 ended at 21,181.6 points with a weekly variation of 3.25% and the Hang Seng at levels of 30,583 points, decreasing -2.19%, impacted by the US measures on imports.
In the currency market, Trump's statements led the US dollar to weaken against its main benchmarks and the EUR / USD ended the week around 1.2267.
At the macroeconomic level, we have the publication of the CPI in the Euro Zone which fell to levels of 1.2% year-on-year compared to 1.3% registered the previous month.
January's unemployment data was also published, which stood at 8.6% in line with the estimates; with respect to January 2017, the unemployment rate decreased in all member states.
As for the leading indicators, the manufacturing PMI publication continued showing strength, reaching 58.6 (previous 58.5, estimate 58.5).
For its part in Spain, GDP grew by 3.1% in 2017, driven by consumption and investment. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell by 7.48% in February compared to the same month of 2017, confirming an improvement in the Spanish economy.
In the United States we have the publication of GDP (second estimate), which increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, but shows a quarterly decline caused by increased imports and reduction in inventories.
For the next week the electoral results will mark the rhythm of the markets as well as the monetary policy meeting by the ECB in which details are anticipated regarding the completion of the purchase of assets.
Regarding the macro data we will be attentive to the publication of the GDP of the Euro Zone for the closing of 2017, which will be published prior to the Central Bank meeting.