Anchor resume from 23 to 29 of March 2018
Thursday, 29 of March 2018
This week focus
We conclude the last week of March in which volatility returns to be protagonist in a scenario in which the risk of inflation persists, while economic sentiment seems to have left behind its maximum levels. Sharpening the situation, the commercial tensions between the main economic blocks unleashed by the US tariff measures have turned back the investor optimism deepening the falls in the main stock indices.
After reaching peaks at the beginning of the year, the economic situation surveys in the Euro Zone in March continue to decline for the second consecutive month as well as the leading indicators of activity, especially in the manufacturing sector. While the latest update of the region's GDP shows solid growth largely supported by exports, it seems that sentiment is adverse among the actors in the economy.
For the United States, we have the publication of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2017, which expanded at an annual rate of 2.9% over previous revisions, although with a decrease compared to the previous quarter (3.2%), supported by consumption and trade. However, manufacturing indices fell back from the previous revision.
Thus, with global trade as one of the main engines of growth, the latest protectionist measures by the United States are causing uncertainty for the market as response measures are expected from the main trading partners and thus an impact generalized about global growth. A reflection of this sentiment is the taking of profits in equities by investors and the transfer of flows to assets with lower volatility.
The main stock indices during the week presented recoveries of the order of 1% for the case of selective Europeans and lower in the United States, however they were not enough to recover the lost ground in previous weeks leaving a negative monthly balance.
The DAX and CAC40, indexes of the two largest exporters in Europe, ended the month with decreases of -2.50% and -2.0% respectively, the Ibex35 -1.1% in levels close to the 9,600 points while the Eurostoxx50 was left a 1.65 %.
On Wall Street, the S & P500 fell -2.7% while the Dow Jones posted monthly losses of -2.9%; the Nasdaq for its part, ended at around 6,980 points with a drop of 3% per month.
In Asia, the Nikkei subtracted -2.6% to 21,159 points, while the Hang Seng closed at 30,093 points -3.06%. As for the emerging markets, which had reacted positively in the corrections of February, during this month they reversed the trend and the MSCI - Emerging Markets index ended negative at -2.48%.
In the currency market the EUR / USD ended around 1.23, while the EUR / GBP closed the week at levels close to 0.874 Eur / Usd. Raw materials fell after the valuation of the previous week; Gold ended at 1,324 usd / oz, while the reference Brent oil was quoted at 69.53Usd / barrel
For the next week we will have the publication of the preliminary CPI for the Euro Zone as well as the PMI and the unemployment rate (February). For the United States, the most relevant data will be the February trade balance and the unemployment rate (March).