Anchor resume from 29 of March to 6 of April 2018

Anchor resume from 29 of March to 6 of April 2018


In this week, investors were attentive to the declarations of the United States and China regarding the commercial tensions recently raised, which detracted attention to the publication of the advanced data of economic activity of the Euro Zone.

After the initial measures announced by the United States to impose tariffs on Chinese products worth 50,000 million dollars, the Chinese government responded with new measures of equal magnitude with a tariff of 25% on imports of 106 products including automobiles and soybeans; response that gave more uncertainty to the markets that did not expect such a rapid reaction from the Asian country, and that exposes the fragility of the markets before an eventual trade war.

After the communiqués of the two parties, a spokesman of the White House expressed the will of the United States to negotiate and reach an agreement with China, which at the moment allowed a rebound in the quotations of the variable income. However, at the end of the week, a new statement from Trump again intensified trade tensions, in which he would consider additional tariffs for 100,000 million dollars, to which the Chinese Ministry of Trade warned of more forceful reprisals.

As a result of the commercial shock, stock prices continued to fall in the United States while in Europe we witnessed slight recoveries. Investors, faced with uncertainty, and with a VIX hovering around 22, preferred to take positions in lower risk assets, as reflected in the increase in the price of gold around the 1,327 usd / ounce and 10-year American Treasuries that They finished the week at 2.83% levels.

Thus, the IBEX closed around the 9,690 points with an advance of 0.98% compared to the previous week, the DAX advanced 0.9% while the Eurostoxx50 scored a rise of 1.42% around the 3,403 points. In the United States we have days with some upswings after knowing the possibility of a trade agreement with China, however at the end of the week the uncertainty returned to the markets and the setbacks were widespread.

In Asia, the Nikkei advanced 0.53% to 21,567, despite the weakness in business confidence shown by the publication of the Tankan report. For its part, the Hang Seng closed with losses of -1.14% in 29,837 points, ballasted by the technology sector which would be the most affected with the imposition of the new tariff rates.

In the macroeconomic environment, Eurozone publications did not meet expectations, both industrial orders and retail sales were lower than expected; additionally, the composite PMI indicated a lower growth rate compared to the previous two months, despite continuing in an expansive zone, the countries with the greatest deterioration in the PMI were Germany, Italy, France and Spain.

In the United States, the trade balance data was below the estimates with a deficit of 57.6 billion dollars as a result of the acceleration in imports, we will be attentive to the publication of the unemployment rate that is expected to be 4 %, data that would anticipate a movement in inflation.

In the currency market, the Euro / Dollar pair ended around 1.2247 with a slight drop compared to the previous week, while the Pound ended at 0.8739Eur / GPB. The Brent reference oil finished around USD 68.3 / Barrel.

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