Anchor resume from 5 to 12 of January 2018
Friday, 12 of January 2018
This week focus
The publication of the minutes of the European Central Bank and the political situation in Germany were the focus during this week. The entity chaired by Mario Draghi, communicated the possibility of giving a turn in the message of monetary policy for best prospects for growth and the advance of inflation towards the objective. The ECB message surprised the investors, although for the time being the expansive policies are maintained and no increases in the rates are contemplated, the change in the language would be preparing the market for a possible end in the purchase of assets for 2018 .
For its part, in Germany, the good news came not only because of the principle of agreement between the conservative bloc and the social democratic party but also because of the publication of important macro references that confirm the good moment of the German economy.
Recall that, after the last elections, Germany was submerged in a political uncertainty due to the difficulty of Merkel to form a coalition government, today after several attempts at negotiation has reached a first agreement with the Social Democrats led by Martin Schulz. The rapprochement was motivated by the internal and European pressure that led the parties to approximate their positions in relation to migration, taxes, the health system, and the German contribution to the European budget.
Regarding the German macroeconomic references, we have the publication of GDP at the end of 2017, which stood at 2.2% supported by the increase in investment, domestic consumption and good performance of the labor market with an unemployment rate 4.5% and an increase in the average of salaries of 4.4% per year. It was also known the data of industrial production that surprised the rise (Current + 3.4%, expected + 1.8%), as well as the trade balance that showed a surplus of 22.3B (Expected 20.9B). This confirms that the German economy continues its growth course.
In the consolidated Euro Zone, the data also exceeded expectations. We have the publication of the unemployment rate which stood at 8.7% in November (previous 8.8%) and with the industrial production data for November which advanced to 1% compared to 0.4% previous.
Given these events, the reaction of the EUR / USD was immediate, the pair strongly exceeded the barrier of 1.20 maintaining its upward path. On the other hand, in the stock market, the Ibex35 recorded gains of close to 10,500 points, while the Eurostoxx and the DAX remained flat at 3,605 and 13,233 points respectively.
On the part of the United States, the era of business publications has begun, the financial sector will be the first to reveal its states, which if positive would continue to animate the stock markets. Prior to the publication, so far this year the Dow Jones already adds gains of + 3.5%, the NASDAQ moves + 4.5% while the S & P500 scores a rise of 3.36%. In the macroeconomic area, the market will be alert to the inflation data at the end of December 2017 and to the evolution of retail sales, which will be decisive in the next monetary policy meetings of the FED.
In Asia we have mixed data, the annual CPI of China was published, which stood at 1.8% (Estimated 1.9%, previous 1.7%), however the trade balance surprised upwards reaching 54.69B (estimated 37B), the growth was sustained by the generalized recovery of the world economy and the increase in the prices of raw materials. The Hang Seng continues to advance and ends the week at 31,412.5 points while the Nikkei225 remains stable at 23,653.8 points.
In the commodities market, Brent benchmark crude trades at levels close to 70Usd / barrel, extending the gains of the previous year to the extent that inventories data in the United States have declined consecutively in the last eight weeks, in addition perspectives of increase in world demand favor the price, as well as the production cuts by the OPEC countries. Gold ends at around 1,332usd / onz maintaining the upward trend of recent weeks.