Anchor resume from 6 to 13 of April 2018
Friday, 13 of April 2018
This week focus
The beginning of the season of business results and the publication of the minutes of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve of the United States set the market pace during the week. The recoveries in assets reflect that investors are optimistic and have paid less attention to commercial tensions and geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
Regarding the publication of the minutes, the ECB maintains the orientation of its current monetary policy, making it clear that the signals of changes will occur as growth and inflation rise more strongly towards the target levels, which confirms that the performance of the monetary authority will be gradual. He also referred to the situation of global trade as a risk factor on confidence and growth.
For its part, the Fed opened the possibility to an acceleration in the pace of normalization of monetary policy, to the extent that the growth, employment and inflation data are close to the expected levels.
Thus, with an accommodating view in Europe and less flexible in the United States, the yields of American treasuries to 10 years increased to 2.83% while in the currency market the dollar appreciated in a daily movement, without However, at the end of the week, the EUR / USD closed at 1.23, maintaining the trading range of the last month.
On the other hand, equity markets recovered in a generalized manner while the VIX volatility index remained below 20 points. In Europe the gains were led by the DAX that advanced 1.45% in levels of 12,445, the Eurostoxx50 closed around the 3,443 points + 1.05%, while the IBEX35 exceeded the 9,800 and added 1.22% in the week.
In the United States, the indices benefited from the recovery in technological stocks and the taking of new positions in the financial sector in view of the publication of results given that estimates point to the first quarter of 2018 being a positive period for the year. sector. The Dow Jones ended the week on 24,480 points + 2.3%, the Nasdaq advanced 3.2% at around 6,915 points, while the S & P 500 closed at 2,663 points adding 2.2%
In Asia the Hang Seng recovered 3.3% ending at 30,831 points while in Japan the Nikkei225 did it at 21,660 advancing 0.43%. Asian markets were less volatile compared to previous weeks, with an eye on Kuroda's second term as governor of the Bank of Japan, who reiterated his intention to keep monetary policy accommodative given current inflation levels. achieve the 2% target expected by the beginning of 2020.
In macroeconomic terms, we see weakness in recent publications of the Euro Zone, on the one hand the trade balance in February was 18,900 million euros, below the consensus that expected a surplus of 20,200 million euros while industrial production fell back 0.8%, with an interannual variation of + 2.9% impacted by a strong decrease in all categories except for energy.
In the United States, the most important reference of the week was the CPI, which fell -0.1% in March, pushed by the drop in gasoline prices, despite the underlying CPI rose 0.2%, which continues to support the expectations of a higher pace of adjustment by the FED.
As for commodities, the benchmark Brent oil advanced 7% in the week to levels of USD 72 / barrel as a result of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
For the next week the markets will continue to pay attention to the publication of business results, in the political sphere the tensions in Syria and the evolution of the commercial situation between China and the United States will keep the attention of the investors, while in the macroeconomic field we will be attentive to the publication of the CPI for the Euro Zone and to retail sales in the US.