Anchor resume from 6 to 13 of July 2018

Anchor resume from 6 to 13 of July 2018


We ended a week of relative calm in the markets on account of a possible negotiation between the United States and China to stop the trade tensions of recent months. Additionally, the publication of macroeconomic data gave a slight boost to the market and stabilized the risk premia of European countries, while the volatility index VIX receded from the previous week. 

Undoubtedly, the data that continues to mark the rhythm of the assets are those related to the commercial activity; This week we highlight the publication of the German balance for the month of May, which exceeded the expectations of the consensus with a surplus of 20.3 billion euros. Imports grew by only 0.7% while exports showed a variation of 1.8%. Despite the confidence rates of both Germany and the eurozone as a whole, they continued to decline from the peaks recorded at the beginning of the year. 

With regard to the commercial activity of the United Kingdom, we have mixed data; On the one hand, the deficit was reduced to 12.36 billion pounds in May compared to 12.4 billion the previous month, but the forecast was aimed at further deficit reduction. For its part, the deficit compared to non-EU countries, shrank to 3.49 billion of pounds exceeding expectations. Thus, the activity data managed to lessen the impact of the political crisis by which the current government passes after the resignation of Ministers David Davis and Boris Johnson because of their disagreements with respect to the customs union and the single market; The FTSE100 index ended around 7,680 points with a weekly advance of 0.83%, while the 10-year debt presented a variation in rate of 1.6 PBS.

In the United States, the trade deficit was reduced to 43,053 million dollars in the month of May, with an increase of 11.7% in exports and an increase of 8.3% in imports. Among its main trade partners, the US managed to gain ground with respect to the European Union, while increasing its deficit with China.

For its part, at the end of the week we learned about China's trade balance, which recorded a surplus of CNY 261,880 million, far exceeding expectations (expected CNY 187,000 million); exports grew 3.1% while imports did 6% (previous 15.6%).

In this sense, the tariffs imposed by the United States and the reprisals of its trading partners seem to be affecting the markets from the side of confidence while the real activity has continued its dynamics.

The European stock markets finished in mixed territory, the IBEX35 fell to 9,745 points (-1.6%), the DAX ended around 12,535 points with an advance of 0.3% while the Eurostoxx50 finished flat around the 3,455 points.

In the United States, the main indices recorded profits between 1.5% and 2%, recovering from the previous week's declines, especially in the industrial and financial sector, which have also been driven by the first corporate earnings reports in line with expectations. at the moment only 30 companies of the S & P500 have reported, which will keep investors attentive for the next few weeks.

The Asian markets also closed the positive week led by the Sensex index that climbed 2.5%, followed by the Nikkei which had a variation of 1.84% and the Hang Seng with a 0.6% advance.

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar appreciated slightly against other currencies, especially emerging countries, as a result of declines in commodity prices; oil fell to 74.4USD / barrel (-3.4%) while gold closed at 1,246 USD / ounce with a decline of -0.59% in its price.

For the next week we will be attentive to the data of commercial balance of the Euro Zone and to the data of production in the United States, as well as the publications of results of the American companies.

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