Anchor resume from 7 to 14 of September 2018

Anchor resume from 7 to 14 of September 2018


Financial markets continue to be shaken by the trade tensions between the United States and China, an escalation that has contributed to a scenario of risk aversion in which emerging countries have been the most vulnerable, but throughout the week the prices of the assets received a boost when it was known that the parties would be willing to resume negotiations in order to avoid the implementation of the new tariffs.

In this sense, the VIX returned to levels of 12 points at the same time that the main global selective resumed calm. Added to this sentiment was the optimism of the European Central Bank on the strength of the region's economic recovery after its last meeting in which, according to plan, the current monetary conditions were maintained.

Meanwhile the Bank of England, in a unanimous decision, kept the rates at 0.75% amid the uncertainty of the Brexit negotiations, however it revised upwards its growth forecasts announcing that the future rate increases will be gradual and limited.

The Bank of Turkey joined the agenda of central banks with the decision to increase rates to 24% (+625 pbs) in order to combat inflation and relieve pressure on its currency. As a result, the Turkish lira appreciated, boosting slightly the European financial sector whose exposure to this country, had been punished in previous days.

At the macroeconomic level, we have mixed data in the Euro Zone, the index of investor confidence fell in the aggregate of the region while in Germany it improved unexpectedly. Industrial production was below expectations at -0.8% for the month of July, as well as the trade balance that disappointed with a balance of 17,600 million euros, 18% lower than the same month of 2017.

From Japan we have the publication of annual GDP of the second quarter which exceeded expectations to stand at 3%, however we see with attention the weakness in industrial production with a contraction of -0.2%. In contrast, the industrial production index in China stood at 6.1% (Annual), improving on the figure for the previous month.

In the debt market, the German bond yield amounted to 0.424% to 10 years while the American treasuries finished at 2.964%. Meanwhile the Italian debt, which has been particularly vulnerable during the last weeks, narrowed its differential to 235 points, while the risk premium of Spain and Portugal fell to 107 and 144 points respectively.

On the other hand, the equity markets advanced in a generalized manner. The Ibex35 recovered the 9,850 points + 1.72%, while the Dax advanced 0.80% to reach 12,055 points and the Eurostoxx50 remained above the 3,330 with a weekly variation of 1.22%.

On Wall Street the Dow Jones advanced 0.89%, while the Nasdaq added 1.77% and the S & P500 1.13% to 2,760 points.

Asian markets added to the optimistic tone with important advances; the Hang Seng + 2.54% ending the week at 27,014 points while the Nikkei225 did it at 22,821 + 0.96%.

The EUR / USD ended the week around 1.16 + 0.55% while the EUR / GBP did not present variations at 0.892. Gold was quoted around USD 1,200 / Ounce, while the price of Brent fell -1.96% to USD 78 / Barrel before the expectation of the OPEC meeting to be held next week.

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