Anchor resume from 9 to 16 of February 2018
Friday, 16 of February 2018
This week focus
European stock exchanges,
Luis de Guindos,
We ended a positive week for the main stock indexes at a global level, however, volatility returned to the forefront after the publication of the US inflation data above expectations, which generated strong intraday movements. In the end, the markets resisted these variations and set out to recover the lost ground.
Like the favorable employment data that in previous weeks triggered energetic movements in the quotes of assets, this week the inflation data did the same after knowing that in the month of January the US CPI was 0.5% (previous 0.2 %, estimated 0.3%) driving the likelihood of additional increases in interest rates by the Fed during this year; however, the falls were controlled and at the end of the week the S & P500 was around 2,750 points (+ 5%) while the Dow Jones stood at 25,250 points (+ 4.8%).
Treasury bonds finished around 2.89%, while, in a contradictory way, the US dollar continued to depreciate against its peers.
Positive movements were also seen in the European stock exchanges, the main indices ended with important weekly advances aimed at recovering the levels seen before the sales of the previous weeks. Thus, the IBEX35 finished with a variation of 1.8%, the DAX recovered 12,450 points and closed positive by + 2.8%, the CAC advanced to levels of 5,270 points (+ 3.76%) and the Eurostoxx ended around 3,424 points. The recovery of assets was widespread despite the strengthening of the currency which closed at EUR 1,254 / USD.
At the macroeconomic level, we have the preliminary publication of the GDP of the Euro Zone, which had an interannual variation of 2.7% in line with expectations, in Germany the growth was 2.3% per year, driven by exports and increase in investment in machinery. On the other hand, in the United Kingdom, the data was not as favorable, the annual CPI remained far from the target, standing at 3%, while retail sales presented a worse than expected performance (Actual 0.1%, estimated 0.5%).
Over the next week, we will have the publication of the confidence indexes and the PMIs of the euro area, we will also know the GDP and business investment data of the United Kingdom. However, the behavior of the markets for the coming weeks will continue to be marked by the forecasts in the movements of the main Central Banks. In this sense, we will be attentive to the relief in the managers of the monetary organisms; the election of the ECB advanced with a preliminary favoritism by the Irish Philip Lane, however the final decision will be taken in the first week of March by the plenary session of the European Parliament. While in Japan Kuroda returned to be elected as governor of the BOJ, which will give continuity to the current monetary easing.