Anchor resume from 9 to 16 of March 2018
Friday, 16 of March 2018
This week focus
The markets ended the week with an eye on the United States on account of the monetary policy meeting of the Fed and the trade tension that has generated the protectionist measures of the government.
Investors remain cautious before the FED meeting next week. The market has widely discounted an increase in the interest rate to the range between 1.5% and 1.75%, however the announcements regarding the advance of inflation and the prospects of the monetary authority for the coming months will be relevant.
This decision of interest rates is undoubtedly taken in a context different from that of the previous increases; and is that the commercial tensions unleashed by Donald Trump in recent weeks have generated nervousness in the markets, waiting for the reactions of the main economic blocs.
The countries affected by the tariff measures have invited the dialogue to reach new agreements with the important American partner, while the International Monetary Fund, warned about the implications of this type of measures on world growth.
Thus, the American markets ended the week without major shocks, the US markets ended the week without major upsets, the S & P500 advanced close to 0.55% while the Dow Jones finalized around the 24,900 points with an advance of 0.3%.
On the part of Europe, the behavior of stock indexes followed the North American trend with few variations despite the Mario Draghi statements and the publication of important macroeconomic data. The expectation of the market to know the advances of the upcoming decisions of the ECB kept the attention on Draghi who showed no news in his speech; He referred to a withdrawal in the purchase of assets conditioned to the inflation target, which was published this week and stood at 1.1% revised downwards after an initial data of 1.2%.
In terms of trade tensions with the United States, he warned that inflation risks could be generated as well as strong movements in the exchange rate. He also referred to the volatility of the markets indicating that it has increased in the variable income while the debt remains stable.
Regarding macro publications, in addition to inflation, we have the industrial production data for January that registered a -1% drop (estimated -0.4%) due to the strong retreat of energy.
At the end of the week the Eurostoxx50 index closed around 3,429 points without variations, the IBEX 35 did so at levels of 9,711 points with a slight advance of 0.26% while the DAX ended at 12,410 points with a slight positive movement. The FTSE100 did not reach with the 7.224 of the previous week and closed with a 0.95% retracement.
In Asia, we have mixed publications. In China, industrial production in February had a year-on-year variation of 7.2% (expected 6.3%, previously 6.2%), exceeding market expectations that anticipated a reduction as a result of environmental measures. We also have the publication of retail sales in February which increased 9.7% YoY driven by Online sales. While in Japan, industrial production contracted -6.8% (estimated -6.6%).
The Nikkei index ended the week at 21,676 points with a 0.96% advance while Hang Seng added 1.6% at around 31,501 points.
EUR / USD ended at 1.2330 without major variation during the week. In terms of raw materials, we learned that OPEC raised oil supply forecasts, which led crude to close the week at around 65 usd / barrel.
For the next week, the focus of attention will be publication of the trade balance of the Euro Zone, data that we will know next Monday and the monetary policy meeting of the Fed that will take place in the middle of the week.