Profitability Reports of our clients from November 2016
Wednesday, 07 of December 2016
GLOBAL MACRO PANORAMA
EUROZONE: The victory of the NO in the Italian referendum increased levels of uncertainty for the Euro Zone.
- Draghi ensured support for Italian banks and maintaining the low rates over a long period of time.
- Meanwhile, Germany continued being the driving force behind the Eurozone as a whole with Spain. On the opposite side, signs of weakness in Greece (PMI at recessive levels of 48).
- Due to the main bearish risks, the European Commission decided to reduce growth forecasts to +1,6% from the +1,9% previously forecasted for 2017.
US: Donald Trump's victory in the US elections was not expected.
- The likelihood of a rate hike for the next FED’s meeting the following 14th of December remained high, boosting the dollar on the upside.
- The OECD set a positive outlook for the US, with growth forecasts at +2,3%.
UK: without changes in the BOE's monetary policy or the reference rate (+0,25%), however, growth forecasts increased up to +2,7%.
- In the last leaks, it was ensured that there was no plan to carry out a Brexit while the leaders confirmed March as the deadline for the activation of Article 50.
JAPAN: the country consolidated its growth levels, improving expectations for the region.
- PMI in expansive levels reversing the negative trend (51,7).
CHINA: Fitch confirmed the country rating on A +.
- We identified a positive trend in the leading indicators, as well as in the market sentiment.
- The US elections led the US to see an increase of +7% in the Dow Jones and a +5% in the S&P500 (now around the 19.170 and 2.191, respectively). Somewhat more moderated surpluses in Europe, with a +2,48% rebound in the DAX30 (now trading within the 10.513) and a +2% in the STOXX50 (at 3.015 levels).
- In Asia, the Chinese selective Hang Seng closed flat while the Nikkei225 rebounded by +9% (now around 18.426).
- On the other hand, we identified cuts of -2% in the Spanish selective IBEX-35, accumulating losses close to the -10% so far this year.
- At a sectorial level, the winners during the month of November were the Energy sector (after rising up by +7,76%) benefited by the rebound of Brent and the Financials (+7,37%). In the falls we find the Utilities sector and the non-cyclical consumption (-4,57% and -4,23% respectively).
- Important falls in the EUR against the USD and the GBP, now trading at around the 1,0670 EUR/USD and 0,8378 EUR/GBP.
- As for commodities, we highlight the rebound of the Barrel of Brent of +19%, breaking upwards the resistance at located at the 50 USD/Brent. Gold traded downwards closing at 1.176 USD/Onz.