This Week's Focus: The myth of peak oil and electric vehicle
Friday, 26 of February 2016
This week focus
In 1956, M. King Hubbert presented to the American Petroleum Institute respect his theory that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s based on this theory, the term "peak oil production" or "peak oil" is often used to determine the point at which oil production for reasons of cumulative extraction and loss of efficiency of farms ongoing phenomenon known as depletion or "depletion" would increase .
The "peak oil" has been based in the recent past arguments for the continued rise in oil prices. However, it has not been proven that it has achieved so far, since the supply of oil in the market has continued to rise. Hubbert's prediction was only for the US, but considering the other producers, the peak is predicted to be reached on early twenty-first century.
In fact, the increase in supply over demand in just over 2 million barrels per day due to the development of fracking and input profitable projects with more than 100 USD / barrel price is behind the collapse of prices crude lived since mid-2014.
With the development of electric vehicles, something similar could happen in the future. The forecast increase production of hybrid and electric vehicles by many manufacturers, can reduce global oil demand permanently, which could involve new excess supply and crashes in the price, if the offer is not adjusted in time .
It is expected that demand for 2023 has been reduced by those 2 million barrels per day due to increased weight in the global electric vehicle fleet.
Currently, only 1% of total world utility vehicles are electric. Like any new invention, its acceptance by the bulk of the market requires time, after which his popularity could increase at the same rate as in the past have made the mobile phone, personal computer, television, etc.
In any case, cheap oil is a disincentive to change for now.