Maintain slight overexposure to the US and Europe.
The most defensive sectors can benefit from a late macro cycle, even recession:
Long term opportunities:
We favor Corporate USD for better return/risk ratio.
The dollar is in the range of 1.03-1.08 due to a more predictable monetary policy than the euro and the war in Ukraine. The currency market discounts a worse outlook for the euro zone. It could have gone all the way to parity.
We see it as risky to invest in Energy at these levels, but we discount that high prices will remain at these levels in the short term due to the war in Ukraine.
Inflation and supply problems favor the agri-food sector. We see medium-term growth for these Soft Commodities.