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  • Anchor Insights Septiembre 2022

Anchor Insights Septiembre 2022

Anchor Insights

The vision of our Investment Committee to tactically adjust the appropriate investment strategy to the financial markets in any environment.

Anchor Insights Septiembre 2022

Market Wrap

  • Fixed Income and Equities, both dropped in August .
  • The Fed's tough message against inflation placed EUR/USD at lows below parity and increased the required return on fixed income.
  • The earnings season ended with 77% of the companies beating expectations and an average growth of 8.5%.

Insights

  • There is value in corporate bonds in dollars and it is looming in European high yield as well. For now, better to stick with high credit quality bonds.
  • The European stock market is trading at recession multiples, while the US could still correct an additional 6% if a sharp economic slowdown is confirmed.
  • Although we are entering the month with the worst historical performance of the year, excessive investor pessimism could support the stock markets and prepare for a rally in the fourth quarter.

Variable Income

Maintain slight overexposure to the US and Europe.

The most defensive sectors can benefit from a late macro cycle, even recession:

  • Healthcare: it will offer us more protection than cyclical sectors. We can find quality companies.
  • Agribusiness: as long as the war in Ukraine persists.
  • Consumer Staples: able to pass cost increases on to consumer.

Long term opportunities:

  • Technology: above-average growth in a low valuation environment.
  • Renewables: investment surge for energy transition in Europe and the US.

Fixed Income

We favor Corporate USD for better return/risk ratio.

  • The rise in US bond rates after Jackson Hole has pushed corporate fixed income yields above 5%.
  • On the other hand, the possible yield rises of the European benchmark bond still advises against overweighting the European corporate.
  • High Yield, both in euros and in dollars, is beginning to show attractive returns, although it is still too soon to be exposed.
  • We continue to underweight inflation-linked bonds, as inflation expectations are lower than the current rate.

Alternatives and Currencies

  • The parity makes the EUR/USD a floor, helped by the greater aggressiveness in European monetary policy.
  • The weakness of demand in the event of a global recession predicts lower energy prices.
  • Inflation and supply problems favor the agri-food sector. We foresee medium-term growth for these Soft Commodities.
01 Sep Anchor Insights Septiembre 2022
Posted By Anchor 0 Comment(s) 230 View(s) Anchor Insights

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