Anchor Insights February 2023

• European stock markets rise, while the US falls back.
  
• The dollar returns to the upper part of the range, given the strength of the labor market.
• Fixed income suffers an upward readjustment of rates.
• The decline in energy and gold prices continues.

• Inflation shows early signs of moderation, but the labor market remains very tight. The services component pulls GDP.
  
• Watch out for central bank meetings: pause or hardening?
• Profit forecasts for 2023 continue to moderate, but a timid sector rotation towards a new early cycle is glimpsed.

• Health: stable income and margins supported by public spending.
  
• Agri-food: the climate crisis and the war in Ukraine put pressure on food prices.
• Staples: with the capacity to transfer price increases to the consumer.
• Financials: you benefit from an environment of rising interest rates.
  

Long term opportunities:

• Technology: Although there may still be volatility, attractive multiples and higher growth than other sectors.
  
• Cyclical consumption: It usually bottoms out before the start of recovery.
  
• Renewables: the need to decarbonize drives huge investment plans in renewable energies.

• Credit spreads at medium levels, both in European and American bonds.
• IRR stabilization in government bonds, both European and American.
• High Yield in both euros and dollars may be affected by the increase in default rates. The BB sections are interesting.
• Selectively, emerging countries with limited external indebtedness.

• The euro and the dollar remain in the 1.10-1.05 range. Increased tendency to weakness in the USD by phase of the monetary cycle.
  
• Real estate bubble risks in some countries (Nordic, Canada, USA, Germany, United Kingdom), although not in Spain.
• Recession risks put downward pressure on metals and energy. Volatility in agrifood raw materials. Fundamental reopening of China for commodities.