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  • Anchor Insights January 2023

Anchor Insights January 2023

Anchor Insights

The vision of our Investment Committee to tactically adjust the appropriate investment strategy to the financial markets in any environment.

Anchor Insights January 2023

Market Wrap

  • Strong rebound in all stock markets.
  • The dollar retreats before the pivot of interest rates.
  • Good performance in all bonds as inflation data points to moderation.
  • Energy prices fall, gold rises.

Insights

  • The economic reopening of China will surely have positive effects for the world economy... but watch out for the increase in infections due to Covid-19.
  • Central banks are preparing for a pause in rate hikes as inflation begins to ease.
  • Corporate earnings are forecasted to drop 7% in the US and 11% in Europe, so a mild recession would already be discounted.

Variable Income

Valuations in average, neutrality. Better visibility on a backdrop of an economic and earnings contraction already discounted. Chances of bigger multiple according to the evolution of monetary policy.

Overweight sectors that can stand a recession or stagflation environment:

  • Health: stable income and margins supported by public spending.
  • Agri-food: the climate crisis and the war in Ukraine put pressure on food prices.
  • Staples: with the capacity to transfer price increases to the consumer.
  • Financials: you benefit from an environment of rising interest rates.

Long term opportunities:

  • Technology: Although there may still be volatility, attractive multiples and higher growth than other sectors.
  • Cyclical consumption: It usually bottoms out before the start of recovery.
  • Renewables: the need to decarbonize drives huge investment plans in renewable energies.

Fixed Income

Short-term caution. The inflection in monetary policy discounted by the market is not the scenario of central banks.

  • Credit spreads at medium levels, both in European and American bonds.
  • IRR stabilization in government bonds, both European and American.
  • High Yield in both euros and dollars may be affected by the increase in default rates. The BB sections are interesting.
  • Selectively, emerging countries with limited external indebtedness.

Alternatives and Currencies

  • The euro and the dollar remain in the 1.10-1.05 range. Increased tendency to weakness in the USD by phase of the monetary cycle.
  • Real estate bubble risks in some countries (Nordic, Canada, USA, Germany, United Kingdom), although not in Spain.
  • Recession risks put downward pressure on metals and energy. Volatility in agrifood raw materials. Fundamental reopening of China for commodities.
01 Jan Anchor Insights January 2023
Posted By Anchor 0 Comment(s) 205 View(s) Anchor Insights

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